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November 2018 Interesting times ahead!

by Jonathan Watson | Associate Director | Foreign Currency Direct

GBPEUR Forecast

GBPEUR rates have ended October on lows as Brexit uncertainties persist and the pound finds itself struggling to maintain a form. November no longer holds any deadline dates on Brexit which means in the absence of any new concrete news on the rates, we will likely struggle to see the pound rising sharply.

The one event helping Euro buyers with pounds had been the Italian budget problems, this has been shown to not be a great concern by the European Central Bank at their latest meeting and had in fact seen the Euro rise too.

I believe the pound to Euro rate will remain between 1.10-1.14 as the market awaits vital information on Brexit to move higher. GBPEUR rates have remained volatile but in a tight range of 5 cents since May and the lack of any firm timetable of events leaves the door open to a turbulent period ahead on GBPEUR levels, as the market struggles to make sense of the limited information available.

It could be a choppy period in the coming weeks as the market tries to gauge the direction for Brexit, an immediate deal on the UK’s exit terms is now looking like much less of a possibility and I feel sterling will drift lower.

Given that I feel the Euro will also come under pressure we could see some volatile direction on GBPEUR levels owing to the uncertain nature and large potential for either issue, Italian debt concerns or Brexit to trigger sharp movements. It is quite difficult to see where any significant move higher for the pound will emanate from, unless there is progress made on the Irish border.

The pound therefore looks set to struggle with concerns over Brexit, whilst Italian debt problems act as a balance and counteract direction on the pair. We have fallen from near 1.15 to the 1.11’s in October, GBPEUR rates are in a very precarious position which could be quickly altered once we get some key news on Brexit.

Clients with a position to buy or sell Euros should be very much aware of the changing nature of this market and take heed of the various options available to maximise their currency exchange.

If you have a trade to buy or sell Euros against pound and wish to get the latest news and forecast, please do email me Jonathan Watson on jmw@currencies.co.uk to learn more.

If you have a transaction that you wish to consider or discuss, buying or selling Euros or pounds then please contact the author directly on jmw@currencies.co.uk

Exchange rates on this page are interbank rates and indicate where the market is trading to show the performance of a currency pair. They are not indicative of the rates which we offer. The information on this article is provided free of charge for information purposes only. It does not constitute advice to any person on any matter. Foreign Currency Direct plc makes every reasonable effort to ensure that this information is accurate and complete but assumes no responsibility for and gives no warranty with regard to the same.

Email: jmw@currencies.co.uk | Web: www.currencies.co.uk
Telephone: +44 (0)1494 725353 | Freephone: 0800 328 5884

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